Weekly technical analysis for 24 – 28.02

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC EVENTS DURING THE WEEK (GMT)

EURUSD:

After breaking the 2-months bearish corridor in bullish direction, the price started following a bullish trend line (blue). The trend line is three times tested and the price is currently teting it for a fourth time. Having in mind that the price is now close to the turquoise resistance (bearish trend), we assume that the blue bullish trend line will support the price and we will witness an interaction with the turquoise line until the end of the trading week. An eventual bounce from the turquoise trend line is likely to occur, but we should not forget that this is not the only possible scenario.

USDJPY:

After breaking through the turquoise bearish trend line, the price started shaping an inverted flag with a bearish character. The formation is not completed yet and it might bring the price to the purple bearish trend line. The interaction between the purple bearish trend and the price is likely to occur until the end of the current trading week. Such event would give extra bearish strength to the price and an eventual bounce would be likely to occur.

GBPUSD:

On D1 chart we have a clear picture on the bullish corridor, which brought the price out of the white 7-months bullish trend line. The last event by this pair was that the price bounced from the upper level of the bullish corridor and the already broken white 7-months bullish trend at once. The fact that the price tested the both levels at once gave additional strength to the level and the price was resisted. Currently, the price is moving downwards, which is the reason to believe that we will see an interaction with the lower level of the corridor until the end of the trading week. Furthermore, as we see, lately, the Momentum Indicator has the practice to swing up and down, where the price follows the same move. Currently the indicator is moving downwards after it has reached the usual top position.

USDCHF:

The price is currently following a bearish trend line (blue), which has brought the price to break the slight bullish turquoise trend line. The price is currently moving in bearish direction and it is about to meet the line, which indicates its previous bottom at 0.88335. This would probably happen in the next day or two. If a bullish bounce occurs, the price would first meet the blue bearish trend line. If the price breaks the purple level, a stronger bearish movement might occur. We would like to note, that during the current bearish movement of the price, the Momentum Indicator has created a bottom, higher than the previous one, which even so small could be counted as a clear bullish divergence.

AUDUSD:

For second time the price has bounced from the resistance at 0.90828, which has started a new bearish movement for the price. The next interaction of the price would probably be with the support at 0.88209, where we could see a break or a bounce of course. If a bounce occurs, this might start the creation of an inverted Head and Shoulders formation. At the same time, the Momentum Indicator is about to cross the 100-level line in bearish direction, which gives additional strength to the bearish movement.

Weekly technical analysis for 17 – 21.02

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA DURING THE WEEK (GMT)

EURUSD:
Gap: 16 Pips (bullish)

The current bullish trend brought the price out of the white bearish corridor during the last week. The price is now still demonstrating a bullish activity. Furthermore, the Momentum Indicator is also supporting the bullish movement. For this reason we believe that we might see an interaction with the big turquoise bearish trend line until the end of the week. We would like to emphasize that a return of the price to the upper level of the white corridor for a test is possible. Therefore it will be good to follow the price’s movement and the Momentum Indicator on a smaller time frame in order to be able to react in case of an eventual correction.

USDJPY:
12 Pips (bearish)

The price has created a bearish corridor, which is eventually about to bring the price through two of the most crucial supports on the chart (blue, purple). If the price manages to break again the blue support and the purple one later on, we might witness a strong bearish movement to the lower level of the corridor. At the same time, it will be good to follow the levels of the Fibonacci Retracement in order to react if a price suddenly decides to change its direction. The Momentum Indicator is very close to cross the 100-level line in bullish direction, which might be a signal that the price would choose the bullish way, but this has not happened yet.
GBPUSD:
Gap: 19 Pips (bullish)

After the price did a false break through the lower level of the blue corridor, the price suddenly changed direction and has rapidly reached the upper level of the blue corridor. It was even crossed, but it still looks like the resistance of the level has overpowered the price. For this reason it might be good to wait the price to make a move in order to determine if the upper level of the corridor is broken or the level has actually resisted the price. The Momentum Indicator is demonstrating a definite bullish movement.
USDCHF:
Gap 15 pips (bearish)

The price is following the range of a bearish corridor (red), which brought the price through the turquoise bullish trend line. After the break in the turquoise trend, the price bounced from the lower level of the red corridor. Having in mind that the price follows the bearish corridor and has just broken through the bullish trend line, the expected outcome for the price would be to test the upper level of the corridor and the bullish trend line as a resistance. Sometimes, this is likely to occur at once. Therefore, the target which we think the price would follow, is located in the pink circle on the graph.
AUDUSD:
Gap: 31 Pips (bullish)

The yellow bullish trend has brought the price through the turquoise bearish trend line. The price is still follows the same yellow trend line and it does not show any intentions to change its direction. At the same time, something like a Double Bottom formation is about to be confirmed (blue). The thick pink line plays the Neck Line of the formation. The Momentum Indicator is located in the higher positions above the 100-level line, which infers that a correction might occur. The same is in force for the price. A correction to the yellow line might occur. This would give new strengths to the Momentum Indicator and would give a new impetus to the price, which could break the Neck Line of the formation.

Weekly technical analysis for 10 – 14.02

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA DURING THE WEEK (GMT)

EURUSD:

On the D1 chart we notice the white bearish corridor, which the price follows recently.  We should not forget that this corridor brought the price through the three times tested SMA150 on the D1 chart, which is definitely a bearish signal, since SMA150 has not been broken for the past six months. Currently, the price is located on the upper level of the white bearish corridor and it is in a test phase. It is very likely to see the level resist the price and to witness a new big bearish move, so we wait for a bounce. At the same time, the Momentum Indicator has just crossed the 100-level line in bearish direction.

USDJPY:

The price has bounced from the 4 times tested support again (orange) (trend). The interesting is that the point, which the price bounced form, matches with a level (purple), which indicates one of the previous tops of the price. This makes the interaction point even more stable. At the same time, we have the Momentum Indicator, which is about to cross the 100 level line in bullish direction. Furthermore, with its last jump, the Momentum Indicator has interrupted a bearish tendency (light blue).This provides additional strength to the bullish theory.  Maybe the price would test the interaction point between the pink resistance (trend) and the red resistance, which indicates the previous high point of the price.

GBPUSD:

After the price went out of the blue bullish corridor (in bearish direction), it created a bottom, which could now be considered as a crucial level for the future movement of the price. Then the price returned to the area of the lower level of the corridor and it slowed down its movement. As we see, the price even crossed the blue line, but as we all know, after a break of a certain trend, the potential return of the price for a test admits such deviations. It is not sure for now if the price has found resistance in the already broken blue level, but an eventual move in bearish direction would confirm part of our scenario, which is a change in the 6-months bullish trend (W1). At the same time, the Momentum Indicator is about to cross the 100 level line in bullish direction, but having in mind that the last candle on D1 is bearish for now, if a resistance occur this would probably not happen.

USDCHF:

On D1 chart we notice the process of going out of the range of the 2-months bearish trend line (white), and creating a new, bullish one (turquoise). The last interaction of the price with the turquoise bullish trend line, send the price in bullish direction. This created two tops, which stay on one line (blue trend) with the last clearly stated top, which actually is a 3-months high. Now the price has bounced from the blue line and it is about to test the bullish turquoise trend line. At the same time, the Momentum Indicator has just crossed the 100-level line in bullish direction, so the test with the turquoise line might be fulfilled with no physical interaction.

AUDUSD:

On D1 chart we notice that after the break in the red bearish corridor, the price continued its bearish direction, but not with the same strength as in the corridor. We even saw a break in the last bottom of the price and a creation of a new, lower bottom. The current bearish move of the price could be followed by the turquoise trend on the graph. As we see, we have zoomed in the last interaction of the price with the turquoise line. We see the bounce of the price from the line, which came after the creation of a Rising Wedge formation. At the same time, it looks like the Momentum Indicator has reached its maximum values, which could only mean that it might drop. For this reason, we believe that the movement during the week would basically be bearish. On the other hand, after the bearish trend in the red corridor, the price got out of it in bullish direction and slowed down the bearish direction. A break in the turquoise trend would mean an eventual bullish activity.

Weekly technical analysis for 3 – 7.02

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA DURING THE WEEK (GMT)

EURUSD:

After the bearish break through the blue bullish trend line, the price started following a white bearish corridor, which last week brought the price through the three times tested Simple Moving average 150 on D1 and the twice tested support at 1.35226. Now the price is testing the lower level of the white corridor right under the SMA150 and the already broken 1.35226 support. The price has definitely started slowing down after it touched the lower level of the corridor. At the same time, the Momentum Indicator has changed its direction and it is about to cross the 100-level line in bullish direction. For now it looks like the price might start a correction to the upper level of the corridor, which might appear to be the basic move during the week.
USDJPY:

After its last interaction with the turquoise support, the price started consolidating in the shape of a bearish flag. Now the triangle is to its end and the expected result might be a bearish break through the lower level of the triangle and a drop with the size or the triangle. A drop with this size appears to match perfectly with 61.8% Fibonacci level. That looks like a perfect scenario for a price movement during the week. On the other hand, if there is a bullish break in the triangle, the flag formation might evolve into a Double Bottom formation and the price might be send back to the purple resistance for a test.
GBPUSD:

After bouncing from the upper level of the bullish corridor, the price started a bearish correction which is about to interact with the lower level of the corridor in the next day or two. Having in mind that the Momentum Indicator is about to cross the 100-level line in bearish direction, we could conclude that the price might even cross the lower level of the corridor and to change its general direction. At the same time, the blue corridor is more slanting in comparison to the general bullish movement, and it has even brought the price through the white bullish trend line, which are more indications for an eventual change in the trend. At the same time, if a break does not occur, the price might just bounce from the lower level of the corridor and could keep acting in the corridor’s frames.
USDCHF:

After the last bounce from the turquoise bullish trend line, the price started a bullish movement. Now it looks like the bullish movement is slowing down. After a very controversial candle, the current one is bearish for now and it has reached a lower level than the bottom of the previous one (yellow circle). The Momentum Indicator is about to interact with the 100-level line and it definitely shows a significant slowdown. Having these in mind, we could state that the price might do a return to the turquoise bullish trend line. It would be good if we follow the eventual return with the Fibonacci Retracement on a H4 chart for example.
AUDUSD:

On the D1 chart we notice a classic change of a level from a support into a resistance. We remind that the red ex-support at 0.88209 was an indicator of the last bottom of the price before the big bearish drop. After the drop, the bottom was tested twice and on the third time the price broke through the support, turning it into a resistance. The level stood the pressure of the price as a resistance and now it looks like a bearish bounce is occurring. The Momentum Indicator does not show intentions for a change, even when the last candles of the price appears to be bearish. Can we talk about a divergence? Maybe the indicator will change its direction right before interacting with the 100-level line. Or maybe the break in the red support is fake. For now, a short position with a Stop Loss right above the red resistance (the ex-support) looks like a good decision.