Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 30/09/2011

Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 30/09/2011

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Euro strengthened after the German Parliament accepted changes in the EFSF.

Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: During the Asian trading session Euro won back its yesterday’s losses against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. The currency was rising on the background of today’s voting held in Germany regarding the expansion of EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund). Since the start of the Asian trading the UER/USD pair had increased significantly and showed its session highs around the $1.3678 area.
The pair dropped after the report of the results of today’s auction of government bonds in Italy. The EUR/USD was forced to decrease to $1.3604 level.
British Pound: The GBP/USD pair traded today with an increase and showed its highs during the European session at $1.5712 area. The pair traded in the range of $1.558 – $1.5713.
Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY pair traded in the narrow trading price range. The demand for the currency with “safe haven” status had been reduced because of the rising European stock market and the U.S. indices’ futures. As a result, during the European trading session the Yen weakened and the pair set its high at 77.01 mark against the US Dollar. The USD/JPY pair could not climb higher than that level and stepped back to Y76.61 zone.

American trading session:
US Dollar: Amid reduction of the US market indices during the middle of session the US Dollar began to restore the lost positions against the major currencies.
Euro: The beginning of the American session was accompanied by the increase in the Euro, which reached weekly maximum against the dollar after the EFSF expansion approval by the House of Commons of Germany.
New Zealand Dollar: After the credit rating was reduced in New-Zealand, the national currency dropped as well.

British Pound: Pound grew after the statement of the representative of the SNB said that the Bank planning an increase of the portion of investments into the pound.
Gold: Set its closed price at 1.626$ per ounce

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Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 29/09/2011

Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 29/09/2011

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Concerns over the situation in Europe are growing.

Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: The Asian trading session demonstrated drop of the euro against the US dollar.
During the European trading session the EUR/USD pair showed temporary maximum at the $1.3690 level, and then stepped back to the $1,3640 range. The discussions over the increase of the European financial stability fund supported the euro today. Germany is supposed to make a final decision this Thursday (the fund will be increased only if all the 17 countries participants’ would agree upon this increase).
US Dollar: The greenback was supported during the European trading session, due to the negative dynamics of the European stock indices.

British Pound: The GBP/USD pair traded in the tight range of $1.5600-$1,5670.
Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen strengthened against the major currencies. And the demand for the Japanese yen grew, as for the save-heaven currency.
Gold: Gold finished the trading day today at the $ 1.595 per ounce.

American trading session:
US Dollar: During the American trading session market participants tried to get rid of risky assets, and the EUR/USD decreased to the $1,3540 level, and the GBP/USD dropped to $1,5600. Concerns over the situation in Greece reinforced, and the major stock US indices decreased.
Euro: According to the released information, the ECB would not increase the interest rates during its meeting planned for the October 6-th.
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Technical analysis for 29/09
EURUSD
If the pair stays above Fibonacci retracement 50% at 1.34882 the pair will rise to 1.37486.
Resistance: 1.35984, 1.37486, 1.38554
Support: 1.34882, 1.33143, 1.31674
GBPUSD
The pair is rising to 1.56722. If this level is broken the pair will rise to 1.58543.
Resistance: 1.56722, 1.58543, 1.60322
Support: 1.54842, 1.53482, 1.52063
USDCHF
The pair may start corrections and decline to 0.88418.
Resistance: 0.91079, 0.92026, 0.93069
Support: 0.88418, 0.87214, 0.85939
USDJPY
If the pair stays below 76.463 the pair will decline to 75.425. If the pair stays above 76.463 the pair will rise to 77.539.
Resistance: 77.539, 78.345, 79.070
Support: 76.463, 75.425, 74.414
AUDUSD
The pair is trying to return to 0.98436.
Resistance: 0.98436, 0.99207, 1.00067
Support: 0.97423, 0.96579, 0.95611
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Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 28/09/2011

Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 28/09/2011

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Willingness to take risks is back.

Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: The results of the meeting of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Prime Minister of Greece George Popandrey rendered substantial support to the euro and increased investors’ willingness to take risks. Angela Merkel confirmed that Greece was considered to be the integral part of the Euro-zone and that Germany would offer all the necessary support to Greece.
At the same time the decision on ECB interest rates has not been agreed upon yet, which pressured the euro.
Gold: The gold price showed increase up to $1659.60 mark per ounce.
Oil: Oil prices showed considerable increase due to the expectations that European leaders would be able to prevent the European crises from spreading. Oil price reached the $83.73 maximums per barrel.

American trading session:
Euro: Optimistic moods supported the risky assets during the American trading session. By the end of the trading day the Euro managed to win back its previously lost positions against the greenback and the EUR/USD pair grew to the $1,3580 level.

British Pound: The sterling strengthened as well, and the GBP/USD increased to the $1,5640 level at the end of the day. While its maximum has been reached at the $1,5700 mark.

Japanese Yen: The JPY/USD pair dropped to the Y76.72 level.

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Technical analysis for 28/09

EURUSD
The pair has broken Fibonacci retracement 50% at 1.34882 and aiming to 1.33143.
Resistance: 1.34882, 1.35984, 1.37486
Support: 1.33143, 1.31674, 1.30277
GBPUSD
If the pair stays below 1.54842 the pair will decline to Fibonacci retracement 23% at 1.53482.
Resistance: 1.54842, 1.58543, 1.60322
Support: 1.53482, 1.52063, 1.50594
USDCHF
The pair has reached Moving Average (200) at 0.86376 and may roll back to 0.84685.
Resistance: 0.85939, 0.87214, 0.88418
Support: 0.84685, 0.83541, 0.82483
USDJPY
If the pair stays below 76.463 the pair will decline to 75.425.
Resistance: 77.539, 78.345, 79.070
Support: 76.463, 75.425, 74.414
AUDUSD
The pair has reached support at 0.97423. If the pair breaks it the pair will decline to 0.96579.
Resistance: 0.98436, 0.99207, 1.00067
Support: 0.96579, 0.95611, 0.94635

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Market review for 19 – 23. 09, 2011

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Weekly technical analysis for 26 – 30. 09

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WEEKLY REVIEW FOR 19.09 – 23. 09, 2011

The previous trading week demonstrated how the major fundamental releases supported the US dollar, which strengthened against its major competitors.
The Euro started this week with the losses against the greenback, since European leaders could not come to a mutual decision on how to stop spreading of the debt crises in the EU. Investors were very negative towards the euro, and the EUR/USD showed minimums below the $1.3600. The pair traded in the range of $1.3586-$1.3720 during Monday. Meanwhile the dollar strengthened against the main currencies against the background of the world major stock markets drop, which lead to the increased demand for the safe heaven currencies.
The sterling renewed its yearly minimum around the $1.5630 on that day. Later on the GBP/USD managed to rehabilitate and reach the $1.5725 range.
American session demonstrated a change in the trading dynamics on Monday. Greenback started to weaken against the major competitors. The new stage of the negotiations between the representatives of Greece, Euro-zone, IMF and the ECB has been called “efficient”. A new spin of optimism pushed euro to its temporary maximum of $1.3700, and the pound strengthened above the $1.5700.
Due to the fact that the S&P rating agency downgraded Italy’s credit rating (from ?+/?-1+ to ?/?-1) and decreased its forecast to negative on Tuesday, the Euro began this trading day with substantial losses against the US Dollar. During the Asian trading session the EUR/USD pair fell below the $1.36 level, yet didn’t decrease further from this point and even set its session’s maximums above the $1.3670 zone. Later on, against the background of the raising European stock market, and, subsequently, the US Dollar decrease, the Euro currency strengthened towards the $1.3750 area and recorded its daily highs at $1.3744. Also, the support for the Euro came after the publication of the Economic Sentiment Index from the German Institute ZEW, which in September decreased to the level -43.3 versus forecasted -45.
After the publication of the Australian Reserve Bank’s Board of September Minutes, where is was mentioned that the Reserve Bank of Australia was not going to lower the discount rate, the Australian dollar strengthened substantially against the major currencies.
Against the backdrop of unjustified speculations relative to the fact that NBS would undertake actions to return its national currency to the 1.25 level against the Euro, the Swiss Franc dropped against all major currencies on Tuesday.
According to the released FOMC decision, the rate was left at the previous level of 0.25%. Following this publication, the greenback strengthened against the euro and the pound. The EUR/USD reached the $1.3700 mark, and the GBP/USD reached the $1.5600 mark. The decision of the FOMC Committee revealed that the FRS was not going to start the QE program. Instead, the FOMC announced the ”Twist” operation, when the long-term Treasury bonds for amount of $ 400 billion were supposed to be bought by the end of June 2012 with the following sale of the short-term Treasury bonds for the same amount. As a consequence, the dollar strengthened against all major currencies and brought down all its pairs AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD to their annual lows.

But during the American trading session the Euro managed to rehabilitate and the EUR/USD pair returned to the $1,3550 mark. The news that the EC would speed up the recapitalization of the 16 European banks supported the euro.
The Japanese yen traded in the range of Y77.00 – Y76.00 by the end of week.

Happy trading!

________________________________________

WEEKLY REVIEW FOR 26 – 30. 09, 2011

EURUSD
The pair is aiming to Fibonacci level 38% at 1.30370.
Resistance: 1.37441, 1.41130, 1.44835
Support: 1.33427, 1.28800, 1.25667

GBPUSD
The pair is aiming to Fibonacci 23%. 1.53419.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344

USDCHF
The pair is aiming to Moving Average (100) at 0.95470.
Resistance: 0.91074, 0.93264, 0.96597
Support: 0.88022, 0.85633, 0.82723

USDJPY
The pair has declined to support level at 76.535 and if the pair stays below this level the pair will decline to 73.126.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117

AUDUSD
The pair has declined to the Moving Average (100) at 0.97417. If the pair stays below this level the pair will decline to the next Moving Average (200) at 0.91278.
Resistance: 0.97889, 1.00031, 1.01873
Support: 0.94417, 0.89581, 0.85561

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Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 23/09/2011

Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 23/09/2011

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Greenback strengthened against the major currencies.

Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: The EUR/USD pair continued to drop today during both sessions, renewing new minimums. The couple established its daily low at $1.3385 area and then straightened back to test the $1.3500 mark.
US Dollar: Yesterday’s decision of the FOMC Committee revealed that the FRS was not going to start the QE program. Instead, the FOMC announced the ”Twist” operation, when the long-term Treasury bonds for amount of $ 400 billion were supposed to be bought by the end of June 2012 with the following sale of the short-term Treasury bonds for the same amount.

As a consequence, the dollar strengthened against all major currencies and brought down all its pairs AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD to their annual lows.

British Pound: From the beginning of the Asian session the GBP/USD pair traded lower and tested its new annual lows in the region of $1.5326 during the European session.
Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY pair lost its previously won positions and accelerated its downwards movement. Minimums were reached at the Y76.116.
New-Zealand Dollar: New-Zealand dollar weakened after the released data, that the national economic growth almost stopped.

American trading session:
Euro: During the American trading session the Euro managed to rehabilitate and the EUR/USD pair returned to the $1,3550 mark. The news that the EC would speed up the recapitalization of the 16 European banks supported the euro.
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Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 20/09/2011

Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 20/09/2011

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Euro is loosing its positions against the greenback.

Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: The Euro started this week with the losses against the greenback, since European leaders could not come to a mutual decision on how to stop spreading of the debt crises in the EU. Investors were very negative towards the euro, and the EUR/USD showed minimums below the $1.3600. The pair traded in the range of $1.3586-$1.3720.
US Dollar: The dollar strengthened against the main currencies against the background of the world major stock markets drop, which lead to the increased demand for the safe heaven currencies.
Australian Dollar: Speculations in regards to the possible interest rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of Australia pressured the national currency, and the Australian dollar dropped against the greenback. Investors are waiting for the last minutes of the RBA meeting to be published tomorrow.
British Pound: The sterling renewed its yearly minimum around the $1.5630. Later on the GBP/USD managed to rehabilitate and reach the $1.5725 range.
Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY decreased to the Y76.60 level.

American trading session:
Euro: American session demonstrated a change in the trading dynamics. Greenback started to weaken against the major competitors. The new stage of the negotiations between the representatives of Greece, Euro-zone, IMF and the ECB has been called “efficient”. A new spin of optimism pushed euro to its temporary maximum of $1.3700, and the pound strengthened above the $1.5700.
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Technical analysis for 20/09

EURUSD
The pair is aiming to Fibonacci retracement 50% at 1.34882.
Resistance: 1.37486, 1.38554, 1.39600
Support: 1.35984, 1.34882, 1.33143
GBPUSD
The pair has declined to support level of Moving Average (500) and median line at 1.56722.
Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050
Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53482
USDCHF
The pair’s resistance is 0.89635, support is 0.87214. If 0.87214 is broken the pair will decline to 0.85939.
Resistance: 0.88418, 0.89635, 0.91079
Support: 0.87214, 0.85939, 0.84685
USDJPY
The pair could not break 77.539 and aiming to 76.463. If 76.463 is broken the pair will decline to 75.425.
Resistance: 77.539, 78.345, 79.070
Support: 76.463, 75.425, 74.414
AUDUSD
The pair has broken 1.02558 and aiming to 1.01744.
Resistance: 1.02558, 1.03535, 1.04407
Support: 1.01744, 1.00907, 1.00067
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Forex Metal Weekly Newsletter

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Market review for 12 – 16. 09, 2011

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Weekly technical analysis for 19 – 23. 09

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WEEKLY REVIEW FOR 12.09 – 16. 09, 2011

During the previous trading week the US dollar managed to strengthen against its major competitors. During the Monday’s Asian trading session the Euro fell to its lowest level since 2010 against the yen and retreated against the US Dollar on speculation that German Chancellor Angela Merkel prepared to default Greece. This fact tells about reducing the attractiveness of European assets. As a result, the EUR/USD pair fell to its lows at $1.3494 area. Later on, during the European session amid rumours of approval for the next tranche of financial help for Greece, the Euro raised to the its daily highs at $1.36942 zone.
On Monday, on the background of the falling Asian Stock Markets and tendency of getting rid of risky assets, the investors decided to “escape” into the “safe haven” Yen. The USD/JPY pair dropped to its daily lows of Y76.7550 and traded in this area during the Asian trading session. Then, during European session the Yen recovered and showed its high at Y77.384 zone.
The American trading session was quite volatile on Monday because of the absence of any important announcements and news. Initially, the Euro and The British Pound stepped back from their highs against the background of concern about lowering the credit rating of several European banks. In contrast, the discussions about the China’s help for Italy supported these currencies to recover against the dollar.
The Euro was trading near its maximums during the Asian session on Tuesday. Further strengthening of Euro currency was constrained by fears concerning the further spreading out of the debt crisis in the region. As a result, at the beginning of the European session the EUR/USD pair renewed its decrease and fell to its second day low at $1.3557. In contrast, the discussions about the China’s help for Italy supported Euro currency to recover against the dollar and strengthen to its daily highs at $1.3737 area.
The GBP/USD pair remained in the range of $1.5828 – $1.5868 during the Asian trading session on the same day. Later on the speech of one of Bank of England representative, Mr. Posen, had put a negative effect on the dynamics of GBP trading and prevented it from growing over its previous session high. He stated that the Bank of England must make a decision about the new 50- billion purchase of the assets within the next three months. The pair started to fall and showed its daily low at $1.5760. The British pound was prevented from moving even lower by the reports of Retail Price Index, which was more or less concurrent with the forecasts. After this UK Inflation data the British Pound showed a slight increase and strengthened against the US Dollar.
During the Asian session on Wednesday the euro lost all its previously won positions. The pressure on the Euro was continued due to concerns regarding spreading of the debt crisis in the region. We also need to mention that Morgan Stanley lowered their forecasts on the EUR/USD pair. They expected to see the pair at the level of $1.30 toward the end of 2011 year and at the level of $1.25 in the first quarter of 2012. Also, according to the published statistics, which showed the decrease in Industrial Production in the EU in July didn’t remain unnoticed and had a bad effect on the trading dynamics of the Euro currency. However, during the European session the Euro strengthened against major currencies amid falling yields of Italian and Spanish bonds, which indicated a decrease in concerns about the situation in the region. The EUR/USD pair traded in the range $1.35914 to $1.3783.

On Thursday the Euro lost part of the won yesterday positions against major currencies during the Asian session and traded in the range of $1.3701 – $1.3750 against the US Dollar. However during the European session the currency strengthened against the backdrop of comments by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who expressed their confidence that Greece would remain in the EC. In addition to that, the positive Euro dynamics was supported by the results of the Spain Government Bonds sale. For these reasons, the EUR/USD raised to its session maximums at $1.3910 area.
Swiss franc retreated against the euro on the same day after the SNB has expressed readiness to take additional measures to limit the strengthening of the national currency. At the end of the meeting, the SNB left a 3- month LIBOR rate at the fixed range of 0.00-0.25%, which corresponded with expectations.

The most important news of this session were reports of the 5 main central banks, in particular: ECB, the FRS, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England which confirm that dollar liquidity would be provided by their coordinated actions, as an attempt to boost liquidity across the Euro-zone. On the background of these news, the greenback dropped against its competitors. The EUR/USD pair showed its daily high at $1.3930 and the GBP/USD recorded the level of $1.5867.

Happy trading!

________________________________________

WEEKLY REVIEW FOR 19 – 23. 09, 2011
EURUSD
The pair is aiming to Fibonacci level 38% at 1.30370. It will be possible only if the pair stays below 1.37441.
Resistance: 1.37441, 1.41130, 1.44835
Support: 1.33427, 1.28800, 1.25667

GBPUSD
The pair is aiming to Fibonacci 23%. 1.53419.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344

USDCHF
The pair is aiming to Moving Average (100) at 0.95470.
Resistance: 0.91074, 0.93264, 0.96597
Support: 0.88022, 0.85633, 0.82723

USDJPY
If the pair stays above 76.535 the pair may rise to 80.244.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117

AUDUSD
The pair is aiming to decline to 1.01873.
Resistance: 1.03847, 1.05810, 1.07806
Support: 1.01873, 1.00031, 0.97889

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Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 15/09/2011

Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 15/09/2011

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Moody’s decision to reduce the credit rating of two leading French banks pressured the euro.

Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: During the Asian session the euro lost all its previously won positions. The pressure on the Euro was continued due to concerns regarding spreading of the debt crisis in the region. We also need to mention that Morgan Stanley lowered their forecasts on the EUR/USD pair. Now they expect to see the pair at the level of $1.30 toward the end of 2011 year and at the level of $1.25 in the first quarter of 2012. Also, today’s published statistics, which showed the decrease in Industrial Production in the EU in July didn’t remain unnoticed and had a bad effect on the trading dynamics of the Euro currency.
However, during the European session the Euro strengthened against major currencies amid falling yields of Italian and Spanish bonds, which indicated a decrease in concerns about the situation in the region. The EUR/USD pair traded today in the range $1.35914 to $1.3783.

British Pound: The GBP/USD pair remained under pressure during the Asian session and traded around its daily lows at $1.5706 area. The report from the UK labour market recorded that the Unemployment rate in the country in August remained unchanged at 7.9%. As a result, it supported the British Pound and GBP/USD pair rose to the region of $1.5815.
Japanese Yen: Support to the yen was rendered by decrease in the basic share indices in Asia and Europe that raised the demand for currencies with the safe heaven status. The USD/JPY pair traded in range of Y76.80 – Y77.10.

American trading session:
Oil: Oil prices decreased. The WTI dropped to the $89.21 mark per barrel.
Canadian Dollar: Canadian dollar dropped as a result of the decreased oil prices and concerns that the possible drop of the world economy would have a negative influence on the raw materials.
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Technical analysis for 15/09

EURUSD
The pair has declined to Fibonacci retracement 50% and may roll back to 61% at 1.38554.
Resistance: 1.37486, 1.38554, 1.39600
Support: 1.35984, 1.34882, 1.33143
GBPUSD
The pair has broken support at 1.58543 and aiming to 1.56722.
Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050
Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53482
USDCHF
The pair’s resistance is 0.89635, support is 0.87214. If 0.87214 is broken the pair will decline to 0.85939.
Resistance: 0.88418, 0.89635, 0.91079
Support: 0.87214, 0.85939, 0.84685
USDJPY
The pair could not break 77.539 and aiming to 76.463.
Resistance: 77.539, 78.345, 79.070
Support: 76.463, 75.425, 74.414
AUDUSD
The pair has broken 1.02558 and aiming to 1.01744.
Resistance: 1.02558, 1.03535, 1.04407
Support: 1.01744, 1.00907, 1.00067
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Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 14/09/2011

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European crises is spreading in Europe and the euro stays under pressure.

Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: The Euro was trading near its maximums during the Asian session. Further strengthening of Euro currency was constrained by fears concerning the further spreading out of the debt crisis in the region.
As a result, at the beginning of the European session the EUR/USD pair renewed its decrease and fell to its second day low at $1.3557. In contrast, the discussions about the China’s help for Italy supported Euro currency to recover against the dollar and strengthen to its daily highs at $1.3737 area.
British Pound: The GBP/USD pair remained in the range of $1.5828 – $1.5868 during the Asian trading session. Later on the speech of one of Bank of England representative, Mr. Posen, had put a negative effect on the dynamics of GBP trading and prevented it from growing over its previous session high. He stated that the Bank of England must make a decision about the new 50- billion purchase of the assets within the next three months.
The pair started to fall and showed its daily low at $1.5760. The British pound was prevented from moving even lower by the reports of Retail Price Index, which was more or less concurrent with the forecasts. After this UK Inflation data the British Pound showed a slight increase and strengthened against the US Dollar.
Japanese Yen: Investors continued to accumulate their positions in the Yen. Taking into account the fact that a question of expensive yen was not solved during the G7 summit, the market was surrounded by the rumours that the Bank of Japan may follow the way of the SNB.
Oil: Oil established maximum at $90.51and closed at 89.74 per barrel today.
Gold: Gold price grew and reached the level of $1834.90 for ounce.

American trading session:
New-Zealand Dollar: Market participants are awaiting for the decision of the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand regarding the interest rate in the next 24 hours.
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Technical analysis for 14/09

EURUSD
The pair has declined to Fibonacci retracement 50% and may roll back to 61% at 1.38554.
Resistance: 1.37486, 1.38554, 1.39600
Support: 1.35984, 1.34882, 1.33143
GBPUSD
The pair has broken support at 1.58543 and aiming to 1.56722.
Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050
Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53482
USDCHF
The pair is correcting and may decline to 0.87214.
Resistance: 0.88418, 0.89635, 0.91079
Support: 0.87214, 0.85939, 0.84685
USDJPY
The pair could not break 77.539 and aiming to 76.463.
Resistance: 77.539, 78.345, 79.070
Support: 76.463, 75.425, 74.414
AUDUSD
The pair has broken 1.02558 and aiming to 1.01744.
Resistance: 1.02558, 1.03535, 1.04407
Support: 1.01744, 1.00907, 1.00067
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