Archive for August 2011
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 31/08/2011
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 31/08/2011
The US dollar is gaining strength again.
Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: On Tuesday the EUR/USD pair showed its session highs at $1.4532, but couldn’t keep above this level and sharply fell to $1.4383. The euro decreased against the other major currencies as well on the background of reduced expectations of the further interest rates increase by the ECB.
The overall release of the European news was rather negative. Italian Retail sales dropped considerably, the Euro-zone Business climate, economic and industrial confidence indicators decreased below expectations.
US Dollar: Today the U.S. dollar had a very â€good†day. In the view of European news the greenback seems to many investors now as the only alternative for preservation of their assets.
The Frank and the Yen, which also have safe-haven currency status, in the conditions of world instability, now are under pressure, since the governments of these countries continue to hold in control an increase in the national currencies after their significant rise in price.
British Pound: After testing the $1.6418 level, the GBP/USD pair fell to its lows of $1.6277 area. The pressure on the pound was a result of the published Great Britain Consumer confidence survey, which dropped below the previous month’s level and its expectations as well.
Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY pair traded in Y76.65 – Y76.97 range. The yen was under pressure during both sessions, since the stock markets continued to rise amid signs of stability of large Asian economies.
American trading session:
Oil: Oil price increased in spite of the strengthening of the US dollar. It showed the maximum at $89.21 mark and finally closed at $88.89 per barrel.
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Technical analysis for 31/08
EURUSD
The pair made an attempt but could not reach 1.46222 and rolling back to support 1.44406. If this level is broken the pair will decline to 1.42996.
Resistance: 1.46222, 1.47342, 1.48550
Support: 1.44400, 1.42996, 1.41780
GBPUSD
MACD divergence does not let pair continue rising. The pair has decline to 1.63316 and trying to close below this level it may bring pair to test next support level at 1.62050.
Resistance: 1.64636, 1.65706, 1.67165
Support: 1.63316, 1.62050, 1.60322
USDCHF
The pair has reached Moving Average (100) and rolling back to 0.81356. The pair may break this level easy and decline to 0.80313.
Resistance: 0.82483, 0.83541, 0.84685
Support: 0.81356, 0.80313, 0.79115
USDJPY
The pair has declined to the support level at 76.463. If this level is broken the pair will decline to 75.425.
Resistance: 77.539, 78.345, 79.070
Support: 76.463, 75.425, 74.414
AUDUSD
The pair has risen to the resistance 1.07005. The pair needs to break median line at 1.07005 to be able continue rising.
Resistance: 1.07005, 1.07739, 1.08413
Support: 1.06164, 1.05332, 1.04407
http://ping.fm/aY5LZ
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 26/08/2011
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 26/08/2011
http://ping.fm/pBsG5
Demand for the high-risk assets drops.
Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: The Euro became stronger despite decrease in an index of Consumer Confidence Survey in Germany. EUR/USD reached $1.4472, moving up from its morning lows at $1.4384. During both sessions the Euro remained trading in the previous day range.
US Dollar: On the background of technical correction from yesterday’s growth and revive speculation about a possible announcement of the third round of quantitative easing program at the Conference of the FRS with the heads of the Central banks, scheduled for August 26, the dollar suffered losses against the European currencies.
British Pound: The GBP/USD pair traded in the range from $1.6350 to $1.6401 during both sessions.
Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY pair traded around Y77.00. Growth of the stock indices put pressure on the yen, but during the European session the pair became stronger and traded above the Y77.05 level.
Gold: On the backdrop of the increased risk appetites, which caused fund indices growth in Asia, the price of gold dropped today to its lows at $1725 per ounce.
American trading session:
During the American session the euro fell against the greenback and reduced its growth against the yen on the fears that officials would be forced to impose a ban on short positions in the European stock markets in order to prevent the spreading and intensification of the debt crisis in the region.
By the end of the day the EUR/USD decreased to $1.4330 and the GBP/USD dropped to $1.6250.
http://ping.fm/OAUGv
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 23/08/2011
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 23/08/2011
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The yen and franc retreated on fears of intervention of Japan and Switzerland Central Banks.
Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: The EUR/USD pair showed its lows at $1.4343 before recover up to $1.4415.
US Dollar: On Monday the American currency strengthened against its rivals, however, the increase of the dollar was limited. The speculations regarding the possibility that the third round of quantitative easing would be introduced during the conference on August 26, pressured the greenback.
During the European trading session the greenback fell against major currencies against the strengthening of European stock markets, which reduced demand for the save-haven currencies.
British Pound: The GBP/USD pair traded in the range of $1.6461 – $1.6513.
Japanese Yen: The Yen stepped back from its record Friday’s highs on fears that the Central Bank of Japan would conduct intervention in the currency market for the purpose of the limitation of an increase of the National currency.
The USD/JPY pair dropped to the Y76.70 level.
Swiss Franc: Under the pressure of the possible intervention to limit the growth of national currency, the Swiss Franc weakened and traded in the range of 0.7840-0.7850.
American trading session:
Gold: The Gold grew to the $1891.92 mark per ounce.
Oil: Today the oil reached the $84.81 maximums.
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Technical analysis for 23/08
EURUSD
The key level for the pair is 1.40690, if this level is broken the pair will decline to Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.38867. If the pair breaks 1.44406 the pair will rise to 1.46222.
Resistance: 1.44400, 1.46222, 1.47342
Support: 1.42996, 1.41780, 1.40690
GBPUSD
The pair has returned to support level at 1.64636.
Resistance: 1.65706, 1.67165, 1.68756
Support: 1.64636, 1.63316, 1.62050
USDCHF
The pair’s resistance is 0.80313, support 0.77849.
Resistance: 0.80313, 0.81356, 0.82483
Support: 0.79115, 0.77849, 0.76605
USDJPY
The pair has declined to the next support level at 76.463. If this level is broken the pair will decline to 75.425.
Resistance: 77.539, 78.345, 79.070
Support: 76.463, 75.425, 74.414
AUDUSD
The pair is trying to recover. Strong resistance maybe met at the median line 1.06164.
Resistance: 1.04407, 1.05332, 1.06164
Support: 1.03535, 1.02558, 1.01744
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Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 19/08/2011
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 19/08/2011
http://ping.fm/ieQ23
Greenback wins back its previous losses.
Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: EUR/USD showed maximums at the $1.4450 level, but decreased to the minimums of $1.43 later during the day.
US Dollar: The US dollar strengthened its positions against the majority currencies amid weakening of the stock indices.
British Pound: The GBP/USD pair traded at the level of $1.6500, then dropped below this level after retail sales report, which reinforced the fears that the British economy was losing its momentum.
The sterling was pressured by the decreased UK Retail sales indicators, which dropped below expectations. Nevertheless, the GBP/USD did not drop below the $1.6500 level.
Japanese Yen: After consolidating at Y76.60 area, the USD/JPY continued trading at the Y76.55-Y76.75 range.
Swiss Franc: Frank fell on speculations about what measures the Swiss National Bank would continue to undertake directed to restraint the growth of the national currency.
Gold: Gold updated its historical maximum, reaching a $1822.00 mark per ounce
American trading session:
US Dollar: The negative release of the published US fundamentals increased the demand for the save-heaven assets. Initial jobless claims increased, the Philadelphia Fed index dropped below forecasts.
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 18/08/2011
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 18/08/2011
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US Dollar drops against competitors.
Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: Today the EUR/USD pair managed to show a strong positive dynamics and almost reached the $1.4500 maximum. Released negative Euro-zone Consumer price index did not pressure the euro, since investors’ willingness to take risks increased.
US Dollar: Greenback started to lose its save-heaven status.
British Pound: The pound fell against major currencies after report, which recorded increase in unemployment in the UK by the end of July. GBP/USD traded at the range of its lows at $1.6351 to highs above $1.6500 area.
Japanese Yen: Today the USD/JPY traded in the range Y76.50 to Y76.80.
Swiss Franc: Swiss franc dropped against the US dollar after the decision of the National Bank of Switzerland not to tie the franc to the euro. National Bank of Switzerland also announced plans to only increase liquidity in the money market to 200 billion francs ($ 253 billion) from 120 billion francs.
Oil: The December crude oil has risen by 1.1% to $ 87.56 a barrel.
Gold: Gold closed by growth of 0.5% up to $1793.80 an ounce.
American trading session:
British Pound: The sterling moved even higher and the GBP/USD hit the $1.6550 maximum.
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EURUSD
The key level for the pair is 1.40690, if this level is broken the pair will decline to Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.38867. If the pair breaks 1.44406 the pair will rise to 1.46222.
Resistance: 1.44400, 1.46222, 1.47342
Support: 1.42996, 1.41780, 1.40690
GBPUSD
The pair has broken Fibonacci 38.2% 1.64636 and reached 1.65706. Now the pair may return to Fibo again at 1.64636.
Resistance: 1.65706, 1.67165, 1.68756
Support: 1.64636, 1.63316, 1.62050
USDCHF
The pair’s resistance is 0.80313, support 0.77849.
Resistance: 0.80313, 0.81356, 0.82483
Support: 0.79115, 0.77849, 0.76605
USDJPY
The pair has declined to the next support level at 76.463.
Resistance: 77.539, 78.345, 79.070
Support: 76.463, 75.425, 74.414
AUDUSD
The pair has tested Moving Average (100) at 1.05799 and rolling back to 1.04407.
Resistance: 1.05332, 1.06164, 1.07005
Support: 1.04407, 1.03535, 1.02558
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Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 17/08/2011
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 17/08/2011
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Statistics from Germany caused pressure on the Euro.
Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: After testing a 3-week’s high, the single currency fell today. The main reason for that was a report of Germany’s GDP and the EU as a whole for the second quarter, which showed slowing down of GDP growth in Germany (GDP fell to 0.1% versus +1.3% for the first quarter). As a result, the EUR/USD declined to the $1.4358 area.
British Pound: The GBP/USD was under pressure and pair decreased to $1.6318 during the Asian session. However, the strong inflation report in Britain helped this pair to return to $1.6382 level.
Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY remained trading between Y76.70 – Y76.90.
American trading session:
Swiss Franc: Swiss Franc reduced its achievements against the dollar and the euro after the report publication of the Industrial Production in the U.S., which was better than expected and amounted to 0.9% versus 0.4% in the previous period.
Technical analysis for 17/08
EURUSD
The key level for the pair is 1.40690, if this level is broken the pair will decline to Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.38867. If the pair breaks 1.44406 the pair will rise to 1.46222.
Resistance: 1.44400, 1.46222, 1.47342
Support: 1.42996, 1.41780, 1.40690
GBPUSD
The pair has risen to Fibonacci 38.2% 1.64636. If this level is broken the pair will rise to 1.65706.
Key level is 1.62050 after which may be expected decline to 1.60322.
Resistance: 1.64636, 1.65706, 1.67165
Support: 1.63316, 1.62050, 1.60322
USDCHF
The pair’s resistance is 0.80313, support 0.77849.
Resistance: 0.73265, 0.74362, 0.75450
Support: 0.71993, 0.70687, 0.69336
USDJPY
The pair has declined to the next support level at 76.463.
Resistance: 77.539, 78.345, 79.070
Support: 76.463, 75.425, 74.414
AUDUSD
The pair is aiming to Moving Average (100) at 1.05799.
Resistance: 1.05332, 1.06164, 1.07005
Support: 1.04407, 1.03535, 1.02558
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 16/08/2011
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 16/08/2011
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Market review for 15.08.2011: Euro speculations amid upcoming meeting of Sarkozy and Merkel.
Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: The EUR/USD pair rose from $1.4250 to its highs at $1.4322 area. After comments from the representatives of the government of Germany regarding the upcoming meeting between President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel, to be held on Tuesday, the issue of government bonds purchases would not be included in the agenda, Euro retreated from session highs and traded at the $1.4260 – $1.4330 range.
British Pound: Before updating new lows around $1.6248, GBP/USD traded in the $1.6271 – $1.6312 area. Later on, the pair tried to reach again the $1.6300 level and remained trading slightly higher the $1.6301 area.
Japanese Yen: Japanese yen fell against most currencies amid speculation that central bank of Japan would continue to take actions to reduce the high value of its national currency. USD/JPY fell from the region of Y77.15 to Y76.76 and was trading near the sessions low in the Y76.79 area.
Oil: The September crude oil prices increased by 2.9% to $87.89 per barrel.
Gold: The December gold price added 0.9% and closed at $1757.90 per ounce.
American trading session:
Euro increased significantly against major currencies on speculation that the result of tomorrow’s meeting of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel would probably reveal the measures to tackle the debt crisis in the EU.
EURUSD
The key level for the pair is 1.40690, if this level is broken the pair will decline to Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.38867. If the pair breaks 1.40690 the pair will rise to 1.46222.
Resistance: 1.44400, 1.46222, 1.47342
Support: 1.42996, 1.41780, 1.40690
GBPUSD
The pair could not stay above Fibonacci 38.2% 1.64636. MACD shows sell signal. Key level is 1.62050 after which may be expected decline to 1.60322.
Resistance: 1.64636, 1.65706, 1.67165
Support: 1.63316, 1.62050, 1.60322
USDCHF
The pair is trading around 0.73264.
Resistance: 0.73265, 0.74362, 0.75450
Support: 0.71993, 0.70687, 0.69336
USDJPY
The pair’s support is 0.77849, which can be easy broken and the pair may continue declining.
Resistance: 0.79115, 0.80313, 0.81356
Support: 0.77849, 0.76605, 0.75450
AUDUSD
The pair is aiming to Moving Average (100) at 1.05799.
Resistance: 1.05332, 1.06164, 1.07005
Support: 1.04407, 1.03535, 1.02558
Forex Metal Weekly Newsletter
Forex Metal Weekly Newsletter
https://forex-metal.com/newsletters/240
Market review for 8 – 12, 2011
https://forex-metal.com/newsletters/239
Weekly technical analysis for 8 – 12.08
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1. Weekly market review from Forex-Metal.
2. Weekly technical analysis.
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WEEKLY REVIEW FOR 8 – 12. 08, 2011
Previous trading week showed very volatile dynamics. The announcements that the international rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the United States on Friday and that the S & P agency maintained a “negative” outlook for the U.S. economy and forecasted that the rating could be downgraded to AA from AA + had a very strong influence on the markets on Monday. As a result, the greenback retreated to a record-breaking lows against the franc and reduced against the yen.
The yen was rising against the other currencies on the background of falling stock markets in Asia. The USD/JPY pair was trading in the range of Y77.70 – Y77.90.
The dollar declined against the euro on Tuesday amid speculations that the FRS would report its plans for a new round of quantitative easing. As a save-heaven currency, the yen rose against the major currencies on concerns about the slowing economic growth in the U.S. and on the EU debt crisis. The USD/JPY showed minimums around the Y77.00 level.
Dollar managed to show some strengthening on Wednesday after the results of the FOMC meeting, where the interest rates were left unchanged at the 0% – 0.25% range. The EUR/USD pair decreased to $1.4350 mark. Later on the EUR/USD dropped to minimums of $1.4200. Sterling followed the euro and the GBP/USD pair dropped to $1.6230. The head of the Bank of England, Mervin King, mentioned that the UK economic weakness would continue to be for a long period of time. The pound almost hit minimums of $1.6100.
The dollar retreated against major currencies amid growing futures on major US stock indices on Thursday. Risk appetites dropped.
Concerns about the fact that the Swiss National Bank would “substantially increase” liquidity reserves and increase deposits in order to prevent the national currency’s growth, caused increased pressure on the Swiss franc during both Asian and European sessions.
After the publication of the unemployment rate report in Australia, which showed increase to the level of 5.1% in July versus the June level and expectations for 4.9%, the Australian Dollar fell against the US Dollar and the New Zealand dollar.
At the end of the week investors’ willingness to take risks grew, and the EUR/USD pair stabilized at the $1.42 level. The GBP/USD almost reached the $1.6300 maximums.
Happy trading!
________________________________________
WEEKLY REVIEW FOR 15 -19. 08, 2011
EURUSD
The pair couldn’t stay above 1.44835 and declining to the channel line at 1.41130. If this level is broken the pair will decline to Moving Averages (100 and 200) at 1.37441.
Resistance: 1.44835, 1.47697, 1.50676
Support: 1.41130, 1.37441, 1.33427
GBPUSD
The pair has tested Moving Average (200) and rolling back to 1.61154.
Resistance: 1.64274, 1.68504, 1.72652
Support: 1.59962, 1.52523, 1.48532
USDCHF
The pair has declined to channel line and rolled back to 0.79957.
Resistance: 0.79957, 0.82723, 0.85633
Support: 0.76882, 0.73183, 0.69837
USDJPY
The pair has declined to channel line and rolled back to 0.79957.
Resistance: 0.79957, 0.82723, 0.85633
Support: 0.76882, 0.73183, 0.69837
AUDUSD
If the pair breaks support 1.03847 the pair will decline to 1.01873.
Resistance: 1.05810, 1.07806, 1.09604
Support: 1.03847, 1.01873, 1.00031
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Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 12/08/2011
Forex-Metal Daily Analysis – 12/08/2011
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Risk appetites dropped.
Asian and European trading sessions:
Euro: The EUR/USD pair strengthened in the area of $1.4232 area and returned to session low of $1.4131.
US Dollar: The dollar retreated against major currencies amid growing futures on major US stock indices. Risk appetites dropped.
British Pound: The GBP/USD strengthened in the area of $1.6200 and stabilized in the mid-day range of $ 1.6111-$1.6202.
Japanese Yen: The Yen showed a maximum at Y77.20 against the US Dollar and then retreated and stabilized in Y76.65 range. The yen was supported by the drop in the stock indices and high-yielding currencies.
Swiss Franc: Concerns about the fact that the Swiss National Bank would “substantially increase” liquidity reserves and increase deposits in order to prevent the national currency’s growth, caused increased pressure on the Swiss franc during both sessions.
Australian Dollar: After the publication of the unemployment rate report in Australia, which showed increase to the level of 5.1% in July versus the June level and expectations for 4.9%, the Australian Dollar fell against the US Dollar and the New Zealand dollar.
American trading session:
Euro: Euro dropped against the US dollar amid growing concerns of the debt crisis in the EU and the strong dollar due to falling of stock markets.
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