Weekly technical analysis for 27 – 31.01

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA DURING THE WEEK (GMT)

EURUSD:

Gap: 3 Pips (bullish)

The price has bounced in bullish direction from SMA150. We remind that this is the third time in a row when the price bounses in bullish direction from SMA150 on the D1 chart. This only speaks about the importance of this Moving Average. Furthermore, we have the Momentum Indicator, which has crossed the 100-level line in bullish direction during the last week. This gives us another bullish signal. At the same time, after the bounce from SMA150, the price has formed something like a little pennant, which gives additional supportance of the bullish theory. Having these in mind, we could infer that durin this week it is possible to see the price to test the turquoise resistance (trend) again.

USDJPY:

Gap: 8 Pips (bearish)

The price has done a strong bearish bounce from the pink resistance, which was the reason for the price to cross the Neck Line of a potential Double Top formation. On its way down the price has found support in one of the previous already broken tops of the price (dark blue).The blue support might bring the price back to the pink resistance but in general, it looks like the price would keep following the direction of the Double Top Formation. The Momentum Indicator signalizes that the price might slow down.

GBPUSD:

Gap: 25 Pips (bullish)

On the D1 chart we notice that the price has formed a steeper bullish corridor, which has brought the price out of the regular bullish diapason of the white trend. In this case, we should conform with the blue corridor which would be of a great assistance in the determination of any further supports and resistances and openin long and short positions respectfully. Since the price has last bounced from the upper level of the corridor, we might expect a bearish activity until the lower level of the corridor is reached. At the same time the Momentum Indicator is about to cross the 100-level line in bearish direction.

USDCHF:

Gap: 3 Pips (bullish)

After breaking through the light blue bullish trend line the price did a bearish broke which has brought the price to break the Neck Line of a potential Double Top formation. For this reason we believe that the price might continue in bearish direction at least until the already broken white bearish trend line. The potential distance between the white bearish trend line and the Neck Line could then be equal to the distance between the Neck Line and the midpoint of the two tops.

AUDUSD:

Gap: 9 pips (bullish)

After the price broke through the red bearish corridor, the first impression was that the price would eventually change its direction. Then the price demonstrated no intentions to move in bullish direction and it created a bearish trend line (blue). The Momentum Indicator also supports the idea of the bearish movement of the price. For now me could keep following the bearish trend line as a resistance and as an indicator of where to place our stop loss order while going short.

Weekly technical analysis for 20 – 24.01

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC EVENTS DURING THE WEEK (GMT)

EURUSD:

Gap: 4 Pips (bearish)

On D1 chart we see that the price is testing SMA150 again. The previous test of SMA150 on D1 was around 80 days ago and the price was clearly supported. From that time we had many interactions with SMA150 on different time frames (M30, H1, H4), where in most of the cases SMA150 was managing to support/resist the price, which turned it into a crucial factor for the price’s movement. At the same time, the current position of SMA150 matches with a support, which indicates one of the previous bottoms of the price. On the other hand, on D1 there is something like a Head and Shoulders formation. The neck line of the formation is already interrupted which gives a bearish signal. But in order to go short, it would be better to see a bearish break through SMA150 first. Otherwise the price might start a big correction on its bearish move for the last 20 days, or even could start a whole new bullish movement.

USDJPY:

Gap: 9 Pips (bearish)

The bearish break through the 3-months bullish trend (green) has set the beginning of a new bearish activity which we have indicated with a turquoise trend line. At the same time, the Momentum Indicator has crossed the 100-level line in bearish direction and the price did a big drop through the thick red line, which indicates the previous top of the price. Then the price rebounded and interacted again with the turquoise bearish trend line and bounced from it in bearish direction. The Momentum Indicator did not manage to break in bullish direction through the 100-level line during the rebound, which infers that the bearish activity is stronger than the bullish. Having in mind that the price broke through the thick red line, we might state that the bearish movement might be dominant during the week.

GBPUSD:

Gap: 2 Pips (bearish)

The situation by this pair is similar to the USDJPY. We have a long bullish trend line (turquoise), which got interrupted and as a result of that, a bearish trend line was formed (blue). In this case, the previous top of the price (purple thick line) was not fully broken. In a combination with the blue bearish trend line it forms something like a triangle. Now the price is in a test phase on the blue bearish trend line. At the same time, we have the Momentum Indicator testing the 100-level line. It would be better not to make any conclusions yet, before seeing if the price is going to break the blue bearish trend line, or the level will resist. If the price does even a slight break in the line, the bullish reaction would immediately appear on the Momentum Indicator.

USDCHF:

Gap: 4 Pips (bearish)

On D1 we have a clear picture of the bullish break in the 2-months white bearish trend line. We remind that the break confirmed a Double Bottom formation which pushed the price in bullish direction. Then the bullish activity was interrupted by the 0.91290 resistance level. Now the price is on this resistance for a second time and it looks like the level stood the bullish pressure of the price. Since the level resisted, that would mean that the price would bounce in bearish direction again. Furthermore, we have the Momentum Indicator, which is close to the 100-level line. On the other hand, this could be a consolidation and we might see the price drawing a shape like a Triangle or a Double Top formation. Anyway, if the price does a clear bounce from the red resistance, we could go short with a tight stop loss – right above the red resistance. Then if the price starts moving after our plan, we could adjust our stop loss until the price hits it.

AUDUSD:

Gap: 8 Pips (bearish)

After the bullish break through the 3-months bearish corridor, it looked like the price is going to start a new bullish move when suddenly, the already formed slight bullish trend line (white) got broken and the price dropped with around 300 Pips for the past week. The Momentum Indicator crossed the 100-level line in bearish direction and closed a Double Top formation. This is the reason why we believe that the bearish activity would be dominant during the week. The price might return to test the white bullish trend line as a resistance, but in general, the overall result looks like would be bearish.

Weekly technical analysis for 13 – 17.01

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA DURING THE WEEK (GMT)

EURUSD:

Gap: 7 Pips (bullish)

After the price broke through the 2-months bullish trend line, an impression about further bearish move was created. After the drop the price slowed down but it was still following the bearish direction until the negative Nonfarm Payroll data from the US on Friday. The price rebounded afterwards and the bearish move was killed. Actually, if we take a closer look at the D1 chart we will see that the lowest the price reached is at the 50% of Fibonacci Retracement, where the price was supported. Now the market attitude looks otherwise and the bullish movement would probably be dominating during the week. The Momentum Indicator has almost gave up the bearish idea and it is about to cross the 100-level line in bullish direction.

USDJPY:

Gap: 19 Pips (bearish)

Of course, the negative US data affected this pair too. The price dropped through the 80-days bullish trend and also broke the level which indicates not the last, but the previous top of the price (red thick line). At the same time this drop confirmed a double top formation. The Momentum Indicator has confidently gone through the 100-level line in bearish direction which only confirms the bearish thesis. For now we could follow the double top formation, but we should not forget that this formation has about 100 more pips to take and the price could find support of some of the Fibonacci Levels or the blue thick line which indicates one of the previous tops of the price.

GBPUSD:

Gap: 0 Pips –

The price interacted with its 6-months bullish trend (turquoise) and started a new bullish move. The interesting was that during the drop to the trend line the Momentum Indicator did a bearish drop too but it only touched the 100-level line without crossing it, which is another sign that the price probably has no intentions to drop. Now the price is doing a small consolidation and so the Momentum Indicator. The next target of the price is probably at 1.6583 (blue), which is the last top of the price.

USDCHF:

Gap: 13 Pips (bearish)

On the D1 chart we notice the break in the white 2-months bearish trend and the completed Double Bottom Formation afterwards. After the formation was completed, the price did a drop to the 38.2% Level of Fibonacci Retracement. The Momentum Indicator did a drop too, but as in the GBPUSD case, it did not cross the 100-level line and the bullish attitude was saved. The interesting is that the area of interaction with 38.2% Level of Fibonacci interacts with SMA50, which we proved to be an important part of the establishment of supports and resistances. Since the price is now testing them both as supports, the bullish odds are pretty much the dominating alternative for a potential weekly movement.

AUDUSD:

Gap: 1 Pip (bullish)

With going out of the bearish corridor the price has formed a support (green), which connects the last three bottoms of the price. This makes the support a three times tested level. We also notice that every of these three bottoms is higher than the previous one. The same could be said about the last tops of the price. This creates something like a corridor (green), which the price might follow for now. The fact that we have a break in the bearish corridor and also, we have tops and bottoms higher than the previous ones gives us a strong reason to believe in the bulls. Furthermore, the momentum indicator has crossed the 100-level line in bullish direction.

Weekly technical analysis for 30.12 – 3.01

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA DURING THE WEEK (GMT)

EURUSD:

Gap: 4 Pips (bullish)

On D1 chart we notice the bearish break of the price through the turquoise bullish trend line. After this break, with crossing the pink neck line the price has confirmed a Double Top Formation, which is another sign for continuation of the bearish move. Furthermore the Momentum Indicator shows a potential bearish move. The Double Top Formation would probably be fully completed until the end of the week. If going short we should definitely conform to the previous bottoms of the price as eventual supports, which are marked with red lines on our graph. SMA150 (yellow) could also play a support for the price.

USDJPY:

Gap: 0 Pips

The price is on the green 50-days bullish trend line again and it looks like the line would support the price. Last Friday the price has tested the trend line again and the level stood the pressure, today we have the same scenario. Having in mind that the price has tested the trend line more than 10 times, and the trend managed to support the price, it would be considered as a missed opportunity if we do not open a long position now. On the other hand, we still do not have a confirmation from the Momentum Indicator. It depends on the character of the trader if you are going to open a position with or without a signal from the Momentum Indicator.

GBPUSD:

Gap: 23 Pips (bearish)

On H4 we notice that the price is testing the interaction point of the turquoise bullish trend line and the already broken 1-year high (purple). It looks like the level has already supported the price, which might be the good time to enter the market with a long position. The Momentum Indicator signalizes that the bearish move is to its end. The bullish activity would probably be dominating during the week.

USDCHF:

Gap: 5 Pips (bearish)

On D1 chart we notice that the price has started moving according to the Double Bottom Rules. But the formation is not fully completed. There are still around 50 bullish pips to be taken. At the same time, following the Double Bottom Formation, the price is getting closer to test the already broken 2-years support (thin white line) as a resistance. That might happen until the end of the week.

AUDUSD:

Gap: 12 Pips (bullish)

On D1 chart we see the already completed Head and Shoulders Formation (yellow) and a potential Double Bottom Formation (red). The Double Top Formation has been completed during the last week and has brought the price out of its bearish corridor. Then the price started following the Double Bottom Formation, but like by USDCHF, the price still has more to take from this formation. It could be said that the formation is half done. At the same time, the Momentum Indicator has just crossed the 100-level line in bullish direction. We would probably see a bullish movement during the week. A long position might appear to be a good decision. Don’t forget to adjust constantly your stop loss orders. 🙂